Gray income and national income distribution (below)

 Gray income and national income distribution (the)
(This report is the outcome of Economic Reform project, the text published in the CITIC had to delete special apology to the reader.
Third, solving the real income of urban residents
1. Group revenue projections for urban residents
the above model (2) estimates of each parameter (see Table 5), statistical sample of the group Engel coefficient, as well as control variables in the national average assignment into the model (2), you can launch down the Engel coefficient corresponding to different levels of per capita income. Table 6 (abbreviated) according to the model of these Analysis of projected results, and group statistics, and the use of group analysis also lists the results obtained to compare.
see from the data in Table 6, compared with a group of the Engel coefficient and obtained through the model and the Engel's Coefficient the relationship between income level these two methods, the results obtained on the whole, relatively close. their low income, low-and middle-income level of these three groups of revenue projections, although the statistics are higher than those of different income levels, but the overall difference is not large (the results of analysis of which model more closely.) upward from middle income group is projected gap between revenue and income statistics was expanded. the biggest difference is the highest income group, in which the results of comparison group was 16.4 million, the result of model analysis was 13.9 million, respectively, statistics of income and 3.19 times 3.76 times. These two results reflect the basic pattern of income distribution is the same, but also with the results of the 2007 report (2005 data ) By contrast, data from different sources, but with higher similarity.
Table 6 shows, mainly due to high-income and highest income group, income gap, estimated by model analysis received an average per capita income in cities and towns 32,154 yuan, not the Bureau of packet data by the weighted average of 16,885 yuan, 15,781 yuan, or Bureau of Statistics. projections and statistics about the number of double the difference.
in Table 7 (a little), we also provide 2005 and 2008, two of the projected revenues (2008 results by model analysis) and statistical income ratio. We found that in 2008 (after the highest income group) high-income group relative to the projected revenue income statistics differences became larger, but overall is still the largest difference between the highest income group. we are not included in these statistics as hidden income in the income of the last column in the table are calculated in each group revenue in the hidden hidden the proportion of total income. Obviously, hidden income mainly concentrated in the highest income households.
results of the above two projections, group comparison possible error will be larger, which is caused by two reasons. The first , group analysis only by calculating the average Engel coefficient of each group and the average income level, the Engel coefficient and corresponds to a particular per capita income. but can not rule out factors other than income on the Engel coefficient. but these factors on the survey statistics of the sample and the effect of the sample may be different, so calculate the level of per capita income may not be accurate. The model law outside the control of the revenue impact of factors on the Engel coefficient, and calculate the national average of these factors impact. The results obtained in these under the influence of the Engel coefficient corresponds to a per capita income levels, and therefore should be more realistic and more accurate.
Second, the group analysis by re-grouping according to Engel's Coefficient approach, in general, to avoid the survey sample distribution sample distribution and statistical inconsistencies while the overall error of the income distribution. However, this method of calculation of the average income of each group are still with the group related to the distribution of samples. The survey sample The distribution of the group may be the group with the statistical distribution of the samples is different. Although the overall distribution of this will not be great, but we can not rule out the possibility of a certain error. For example, the highest income group of urban residents and the lowest income group, income level of the group may not equal distribution, but were inclined to low-and high-end. However, the survey sample distribution within the group, may not comply with this feature. The model law is based on income and other factors on Engel coefficient coefficient deduced directly from the Engel coefficient of the corresponding income level, the accuracy should be higher than the comparison group.
the above two considerations, in the following calculations, we will model analysis (model 2 ) of the estimated results.
Figure 2 (slightly) more intuitive given the projected income of the two methods and statistical comparison of income. You can see that both methods are consistent, but also some differences. which obtained by model analysis of high-income group was significantly higher than per capita income comparison group obtained by the per capita income, and model analysis of the highest income group per capita income of less than obtained by comparison of income groups.
In addition, For comparison, we report the study in 2007 estimated data for 2005 compared with the statistical data behind the map is also on Figure 2 (omitted). These two plans are similar, showing the two surveys and the basic consistency of research findings .
also be pointed out, in the 2007 report, the authors survey sample to determine projected according to income level groups may be the positive direction of the error, so do the projections down to a certain extent. From Table 6 shows that after reduction 2005 projections are not adjusted with the number of processing projections for 2008 the ratio of the number compared with the same statistics, only the (second) except high-income group. It seems that, when the reduction is reasonable, and even then the error may be mainly to comparative law from the group itself, so this method using the model projections to eliminate this error.
but also re-emphasized here, where the projection is only solved the problem of under-reporting of income statistics, and statistics is not resolved Data missing in high-income samples, so in fact the highest income residents here on the projected per capita income to some extent may still be low.
This situation is reflected in our survey sample. by group comparison method of investigation After the sample group, there are a few high-income sample failed to include the seven income groups. This is because the family Engel coefficient of these samples lower; add these samples, the highest income group, the average Engel's coefficient will be lower than the statistics Engel's coefficient of the highest income group. In this valid samples, 76 samples were excluded high-income, and their per capita disposable income of 40 million yuan, the average income of 66 million. Their average Engel coefficient only 0.224, while the National Bureau of Statistics sample of urban households in the highest income group, the average Engel coefficient was 0.292. It seems that, in the statistics department of the urban household samples, and may rarely include the per capita income of more than 40 million households. so strictly that the highest income group is not here, the residents of the highest income group, because there are a number of higher income residents are not included.
but we can not use the survey sample to reflect the statistics of high-income residents in the case of omission, This is because we can not know people were missing in all high-income urban families occupy what proportion of these survey data can not not included in the distribution of high-income sample was left to represent the high-income country sample distribution, Because the distribution of survey sample with the national distribution of higher income residents may not be consistent. And, in our survey sample is also still missing. In the survey sample, the highest household income per capita disposable income of 1.76 million , higher than the income of the sample was not included.
This also from a side note in the survey, higher income residents have been left out. And we are here to take the two projections Engel coefficient method can only correct the existing statistical sample of under-reporting of income and can not correct the omission caused by high-income sample problem of low income statistics. so to some extent, we are can see that in 2008 accounted for 10% of the highest-income households of urban residents, per capita disposable income of 13.9 million, rather than the statistics show 4.4 million. a difference of 3.2 times. the highest-income households are not included in the statistics of these Implicit in the income of urban residents accounted for 63% of the total hidden income. coupled with a high income group, 20% of high-income urban residents in the hidden income of urban residents accounted for 80% of the total hidden income or more. < br> Accordingly projected income gap of urban residents, 10% of urban households by group, in 2008 the highest income of urban households with the lowest income families are the real per capita income of 5350 yuan and 139,000 yuan, the gap is 26 times (last report The projected gap in 2005 was 31 times), and calculated according to statistical data only 9 times. (The income gap is smaller than the last projection projections, mainly because of the projected per capita income of the lowest income group than in high income statistics 12%. This, in turn related with the following conditions: a small number of samples in the survey sample did not include a negative income, because they are not under normal circumstances, low income, and their negative operating loss of income caused by temporary . but does not include these samples, to a certain extent, improved the projected income of the lowest income group. It is estimated in the statistical sample in this case was not removed. This may be projected income is higher than the lowest income group a major cause of income statistics.)
20% with the highest income urban families and rural families in the lowest income 20% to approximately represent the country's highest and lowest 10% income households [1], then 10% of the country's highest per capita income of families was 9.7 million, while 10% of the lowest per capita household income is 1,500 yuan, both 65-fold difference in 2008 (projected for 2005 is 55 times), and calculated according to statistics only 23 times.
believe most of this hidden income occurred in the town. income of rural residents approximately statistics assume that is true, the use of projected income of urban residents per capita income data instead of statistical data, and rural per capita net income statistics (weighted average of group) were multiplied by the number of urban and rural populations, you can approximate the national population by 2008, total disposable income of 23.2 trillion yuan [2], but if the statistical data by urban and rural household income calculation, the national income in 2008 totaled only 14 trillion yuan. In comparison, the hidden income of up to 9.26 trillion yuan, more than in the 2007 report of the projected revenues in 2005 recessive (4.85 trillion yuan) expansion has nearly doubled (up 91%). In the same period, nominal GDP grew by only 71.4%. This shows that implicit Income from continuing to grow faster than the speed of the rapid expansion of GDP.
includes hidden in their income, the country in 2008 than in 2005, disposable income grew by 69.3%, with nominal GDP growth rate of close to synchronization. while the official statistics calculation (not including hidden income), the national disposable income in 2008 than in 2005 only increased by 57.4%, far behind the growth of GDP. So the proportion of its GDP from 2005 of 48.4% to 44.5% in 2008, down by 3.9 percentage points. Obviously, the implicit rate of income growth is much higher than normal revenue growth. were calculated by statistical data and data calculated per capita disposable income of urban people, National disposable income and the total proportion of GDP, the growth rate during the period 2005-2008, as well as the growth rate of nominal GDP, see Table 8 (slightly).
3. from other sources verify the hidden income
To test the reasonableness of these projections, in addition to methodological issues need to be explored, is more important is to look at projections degree of agreement with the facts. a long time, income statistics, macro-economic data, housing, cars and other luxury goods sales , there are many apparent contradictions or inexplicable place. And if the above projections of hidden income includes income of residents, these contradictions largely disappeared. The author believes that this should be reasonable to test whether the projection of a major method. If there is a huge hidden above the estimated revenue, it also bound to the macro level in the national economy reflected in a series. Here we try a few different ways to authenticate.
(1) household savings and consumption Total
2008, according to urban-rural income statistics and projections of urban and rural population, urban and rural household savings amounted to 3.55 trillion yuan (here's savings and disposable income is defined as the difference between the consumption). This is the residents real savings is it? exist in different forms of household savings, or directly, indirectly, for a variety of investments. so we reflect the macroeconomic level, the net investment in a variety of information about people finishing Total (net lending), can be approximated The total savings projected population size.
This year, the national financial institutions balance of savings deposits of urban and rural residents increased by 4.54 trillion yuan (we know financial institutions should be more accurate data), indicating that residents use only savings deposits in financial institutions, some in excess of the projected savings by income statistics 1 trillion total.
the same year, sales of 2.12 trillion yuan of commercial housing (not including second-hand housing), the amount of net growth in housing loans to individuals 300 000 000 000 Yuan, spent 1.82 trillion yuan of household savings.
the same year, rural housing investment spending 371.1 billion yuan individuals. survey found that urban residents are also very common in personal housing, owner-occupied housing in the urban residents account for approximately 15% -16%. Although the incidence rate is lower than in rural areas, but significantly higher than the amount of investment units in rural areas. estimated total investment of not less than the self-help housing in rural areas. And such investment loans rarely used, mainly from personal savings. Accordingly estimates, urban and rural residents from the building using a personal savings invested 700 billion yuan.
2008, the owner's income and savings formation. services funded by private individuals invest no less than industry estimates of private investment, should be more than 1 trillion yuan. secondary and tertiary industries, enterprises, and 28.74 million households have individual licenses for self-funded private investment, and construction of such private investment, roughly estimated at between 5 billion trillion yuan m1. several together, the secondary and tertiary industries to from personal savings and private investment estimated at between 2.5m3 trillion.
2008 年, A-share market stock market capitalization has shrunk 50.9% compared with 2007, while the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite Index fell 65.4% and 62.4%, recorded a decrease of magnitude greater than the market capitalization has shrunk; two-phase offset, the year is still estimated investment of 1.35 trillion yuan of net absorption. Treasuries and corporate bonds amounting to 1.7 trillion yuan. If you press the third of these investments computing personal funds, stocks (A shares) and bonds to attract private savings, a total of 1 trillion yuan.
In addition, residents of futures, gold, foreign exchange and other financial products, investments, cash on hand together with the residents and foreign deposits items increases, roughly estimated 500 billion yuan (perhaps underestimated). [3]
the above together, the total amount of the 2008 National Savings should be at least 11 trillion m11.5 trillion yuan, rather than by income statistics Data calculated 3.5 trillion yuan. This shows that there is at least 7.5 trillion trillion yuan m8 invisible income residents are not included in income statistics. In addition, household consumption statistics calculated according to consumer spending was 9.46 trillion yuan total . Although consumption statistics and missing less than income statistics, the survey found that the omission was a considerable range. If by missing a conservative estimate of 20%, it means that the consumer has been underestimated by nearly 2 trillion yuan. and underestimated the savings add up, in 2008 the actual total amount of invisible income residents should be at least between the 9.5m10 trillion yuan. This analysis method based on the model above the projected 9.3 trillion yuan of hidden income is consistent. < br> more than this, not only in 2008. on the recent macro data analysis, can get similar results. but also by the macro data analysis shows the total amount of invisible income, there is growing trend.
(2) price earnings ratio
According to foreign experience, usually residents of commercial housing price is 3-5 times the annual household income is affordable, or else the housing market will not have a good development. The statistics calculated by revenue, income of urban residents of the house about 10 times more than has been the housing market has continued to hit, which is always a mystery to face domestic and foreign researchers .2008, commercial housing sales 21000 billion in 2009, soared to 3.8 trillion yuan. If the income calculated according to statistics, net lending, which is far more than 10% of the highest income of urban households of all income. This is a statistical data can not explain the phenomenon.
According to China's statistics of 2008 income of urban residents, per capita disposable income of 15,780 yuan, the average family size was 2.91 people, combined family income of 45,900 yuan, while the same year, sales of 2.12 trillion yuan of commercial housing, a total of 593 million square meters, by an average of 110 square meter each, the estimated 5.15 million units sold, average price of 411,000 yuan each, the statistics show the average household income of urban residents for 9 times. while the same calculation, in 2007 and 2009 are more than 10 times. This is far beyond the capacity of urban residents. It should also be taken into account that part of the family is from real estate speculators to buy second-hand housing, the price they actually pay more than the original 一手房 prices, which are not included in the new home market the price. But this did not prevent the continued hot housing market. These phenomena show that the average income of urban residents may be underestimated more than doubled.
according to statistics, the number of urban households accounted for 20% of the high-income families (the highest income 10 % and 10% of households in high-income sub-total) per capita income in 2008 was 3.5 million, an average annual household income of 89,000 yuan. The average price calculated by society, and their price earnings ratio of roughly 5 or so. This means that even high-income families, in 2008, is only barely able to afford housing in the range of edge. The fact that this is untrue.
1990-2009 cumulative years of commercial housing sold over 46 million units total, more than the town The total number of high-income families (about 41 million). Survey data show that a considerable number of high-income families actually do not need housing (with public housing, provide housing, or high-income residents, their standard of housing prices far higher than the average price of social standards, and about a third of high-income families have a second, three or more residential. these descriptions and income residents far more than the actual income level is underestimated doubled.
(3) the family car and income
according to China's private car ownership statistics, in 2008 China's privately owned small and micro cars 28,140,000 If urban residents by 90% of calculated penetration rate of urban households has reached 12.1% of household vehicles (per one hundred family car with 12.1), indicating that 20% of total urban households in high-income families, has no car will be removed as part of the family, the car has been basically universal. actually some middle-income families has become a car class. car ownership and annual statistics on the number of licenses issued basis, should be accurate. and according to a sample survey of urban household income, per one hundred urban households owned only 8.8 family car. nearly one-third less than the former. This shows from another angle, household sample survey omitted a considerable number of samples of high-income families. and more obvious contradiction is that a car household income statistics do not own a car.
family car if the average price at 10 million, 2 million in related costs (fuel, maintenance, insurance, inspection, parking fees, toll fees) dollars, usually at least 20 million yuan to support the annual household income. According to statistics, 20% of the high-income families an average annual disposable income is only 8.9 million, minimum 6 million, far below the level of popular family cars. The projections in this report the previous results, 20% of urban households that the actual average annual household income of about 24 million to 12 million per floor, most with a car capacity. This again shows the statistics of high-income residents income been seriously underestimated, the report projected in front of their income is largely consistent with their ability to buy cars.
(4) Other
urban residents listed above to remove the housing, automobiles, etc., of urban residents in many other spending is income statistics can not be explained. One example is the foreign consumer .2008, the number of national travel abroad more than 40 million people, equivalent to 20% of urban high-income families per one person. If you assume 1 / 3 is business reason to deduct the remaining for tourism, visiting relatives, studying, etc., spent 30,000 yuan per capita basis, residents of this country expenditures reached 800 billion yuan. This part is not included in total retail sales of social consumer goods in domestic expenditure, the same can not be found in sources of income statistics.
also reported in China each year hundreds of billions of private capital into the foreign bank; According to Ministry of Public Security officials estimate that China's annual outflow of gambling money to at least several hundred thousand billion billion between. [4]
four gray income and its source
1. huge invisible income to what?
in national income distribution, there is such a huge amount of invisible income, and distribution of highly concentrated, obviously can not simply be explained by statistical missing. According to the first part of Table 7 of this report projections, the low-income residents a certain extent, there is a tendency to under-reporting of income, generally in the range of 0% to 30% range . These can still be seen as normal income statistics omissions, mainly with the survey may be some psychological state or social environment. But more than high-income residents in the hidden a substantial increase in income, especially in the real income of residents in the highest income up several times the revenue statistics, indicating the reasons for the existence of a deep system. The main part of the hidden income, is no longer a normal income statistics missing, but can only be explained with the gray income.
on the concept of gray income recently caused some controversy. have a saying: gray income is the illegal income, but only Another argument emphasizes the concept itself definition, can not clearly determine the income of legal or illegal. even though the do nothing to solve the problem. This may also explain, solve the problem of gray income deeply touched some people's vested interests, is bound to encounter strong resistance.
we use the concept of gray income, usually refers to two situation. the first case, real life, some income, because the legal system or not clearly defined, so in the middle ground between legal and illegal. to illustrate with an example, civil wedding, accepting the gift of family and friends gifts, both folk customs, but also permitted by law. Even in the party and government officials, relatives, children who, if within reasonable limits, it may not be able to simply prohibited. But some officials by their children, spend lots of money received on behalf of relatives of the wedding, convergent wealth, even hundreds of thousands, millions, in essence, accepted bribes. This requires laws and regulations of officials accepting gifts gifts for relatives of the situation, the amount of the plot and the boundaries delineated a legitimate, and the establishment of viable methods of supervision . crossed the line, must be strictly prohibited, shall be punished for illegal income. But there is no clearly defined laws and regulations in cases, such revenues can only be counted as gray income.
another example, enterprises, institutions or government agencies pay in addition, to provide some incentives and benefits of employees, in general it is normal and legal behavior. But some government agencies or state-owned enterprises with a monopoly position, generous expense of public funds to the various name to the officials, corporate management much higher than the market or to provide regular employee benefits or additional benefits, may also escape the tax, which is actually against the public interest. This is a class which is so often the case, is the violation of discipline, but not illegal. the laws and regulations This did not make clearly defined circumstances, such income is only to describe the gray income.
, of course, does not rule out some legitimate income, the law does not explicitly given their legal status, which turned gray income. < br> The second scenario is that some suspected illegal income from unknown sources can not be found in its illegal circumstances, can only be viewed as a gray income. for example, by the frequent appearance of insider trading, false to obtain real estate auction income, through inside information, spreading false information, market manipulation in the stock market, futures market to obtain profits, and government officials for personal gains, trading power for money obtained by the interests and so on. But if only the public or the person suspected plot, but can not get hard evidence and can not be treated as illegal income.
has exposed the illegal income, after all, a few cases, we are discussing here, the gray income, in addition to including its legality is not clearly defined income, but also covers most of the fact of the illegal income.
former case, the description of the legal and institutional imperfections, so that many areas of income distribution, and loopholes exist fuzzy interval; post a note in the legislation and enforcement , there is a disconnect between supervision on some important areas of economic activity, the behavior of public servants lack of effective supervision; both lead to a distorted distribution of national income. When a society when a large number of gray income, the natural system that has serious not sound or loopholes. This is a dangerous signal that the national income distribution from the regular track. Therefore, to solve the gray income and the income gap is too large problems, the key is not how to define the gray income; the lack of targeted talk ; ban to effectively regulate the national income distribution.
2.
gray source of income in the market economy, based primarily on distribution of national income paid to factors of production, that is divided into labor, human capital, capital, land and other natural resources in return. the market economy does not spontaneously ensure equitable distribution of income, but in general play is conducive to economic efficiency; because under competitive conditions, the high rate of return of factors of production, would receive a higher return, thus income distribution through the promotion of the efficiency incentives; and the free movement of factors of production but also to ensure optimal allocation of resources.
but any society requires government involvement in the distribution of income. because the community must be part of the resources or output used for public infrastructure investment and maintenance, the macro-control, promoting technological development, to ensure national defense and social security. As the market economy can not guarantee the fairness of income distribution, but also need the government to establish social security, public services and transfer payment system to improve income distribution. These are not spontaneous market mechanisms to complete. developed in the 20th century, experienced a series of institutional changes in this area, reducing the unfair distribution of income, but also reduce social conflict, the traditional capital of the jungle from the past Evolution of doctrine to the more humane capitalism. These changes enhance social harmony and stability and, indirectly, protect the sustainable development of the economy.
these cases than described in the abstract economic theory of income distribution is more complex. II the tenth century the development of economics, despite the economic externalities on public economics, the macroeconomic balance and macro-management of Keynes and Keynesian economic theory, and information about elections, public policy and public interest, public choice theory, each covers some aspects of income distribution, but overall progress is still lagging behind these theories of social practice, can provide relatively limited guidance.
One important area is how to ensure reasonable public resources and the income use and distribution. control of these resources or personnel authority, driven by interests, it is easy to meddle in its use or distribution process, occupation of these resources, or use of these public resources for personal gain. In this case, originally used for ensure social equity of public resources, may become prey for the privileged few, but exacerbate the unfair distribution of income.
Broadly speaking, the executive power itself is a public resource. because those in power who can use administrative powers to intervene in income distribution, resource allocation and socio-economic activities, through the abuse of power against the interests of other members of society.
so-called gray an important source of revenue is generated around the power of corruption, malfeasance, corruption and other rent-seeking. This not only requires the use of public resources and authority to make the exercise of strict legal definition, and the establishment of a series of relevant rules and regulations, and require the use of public resources and strictly monitor the distribution process. rely on the government to self-supervision not enough, the key point is to make government more transparent, so that the general public to supervise the government.
in the current case, the gray income often closely related to the following phenomena:
(1) money trading, abuse of power
according to a 2006 survey covering the whole country four thousand, for person in charge of answering very much regulated industry, the situation is more serious. which answers informal payments 23%, chemical raw materials and chemicals manufacturing industry 24.2%, are significantly higher than average. [5]
direct misappropriation of public resources is also quite common. According to the National Audit Office on the 2009 central budget implementation and other financial income support the audit report, a sample of 56 central departments have been suspicious invoices for reimbursement of 29,363, found a false invoice 5170, charged to fund 142 million. have a situation can do to make comments, that is selling fake invoices has become a full-scale industries, who openly selling fake invoices and advertising is not only seen everywhere in the city, these ads are fully ...