Big Diplomacy - listing the pros and cons of China's foreign

 Over the years, our foreign policy is to stay on top of the empiricists. Our politicians are our experts on international issues, but they also have to think of economic construction, reform, media control, power struggles, so many to enjoy life problem, how much time the day they can be used to think foreign policy issue? our leaders in many of the students graduating from engineering schools, it is undeniable that they have a strong ability, but they are difficult step in the process of climbing , the problem has contacted many foreign researchers and monographs monographs?, of course, we also have think tanks, but we did a foreign culture and way of thinking? we can predict the extent to which a number of countries in response to the events? the extent to which our competitors find out about the bottom line? our diplomatic atmosphere filled with Chinese culture, we are accustomed to is treasure that we sometimes emotional and sometimes greed, we often to foreign countries as a fixed model approach rather than the interactive system, we can not calm analysis of foreign of our evaluation, we have insufficient information, but too lazy to gather information, then we own the country into an zf also can not distinguish the difference between foreign countries and hhhh
zf a mature foreign nation should have a rational view. We must learn to look at the issue from the position of others, large and small countries notified the diplomatic thinking is very different. We have to learn to look at the issue from multiple perspectives, a country fate, respectively, at different times may be controlled by the monarch, generals, soldiers, foreign forces, businessmen, intellectuals, civilians, and so the hands of different interest groups, viewed the state as a whole is stupid, only the top leaders and their dialogue is In particular, stupid.
This article discusses four aspects for an ideal foreign concept: great power interests of the game, the small country's security strategy, economic diplomacy, layered diplomacy. which is by large and small countries, economic stratification as the weft, mutual a cross. Also for discussion on today's hegemonic countries (such as the U.S.) features, and clear: The military powers like the United States more harm than good for the head-on confrontation, we are the most effective way to weaken the U.S. soft-blow. There will also be explained threats Japan and Russia.
the interests of big countries mentioned here
big game country, is likely to become a world power or a regional hegemon, at least not completely succumbed to the weak to the extent of a country's national . such as the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, India, and once in Germany, Japan, and even in Iraq.
short-term relationship between the major powers might be directed against (a party requires the use of military advantage obtained directly from the other interests or attempts to dominate both in contradiction), indirect confrontation (fight for the interests of third parties), to contain and weaken (the other major powers do not want to grow up, in the short term to another without any military power and economic impact, but to dispel he became the overlord of the possibilities), each transaction (including all political, economic, military, territorial transactions) and allies (such as the relationship between Britain and the United States, but this relationship is relatively small in the modern world, and actually only completed
permanent interests, there is no eternal friends).
some big countries are afraid of each other, their interests of the game depends on the one hand, the success of the objective conditions (such as the strength of the contrast, the strength of strong third-party intervention), and the other On the one hand depends on the diplomatic skills (grasping the bottom line on the other side, the expected response on the other side, negotiation skills, to win international support skills).
game like business. to make a simple example, A wanted to sell something B , for a run, a hundred dollars is not a loss of B, the usefulness of the value of this thing two hundred dollars, then how much more appropriate pricing of it? clear business collapse, according to us would like to see, so If A knows B's bottom line, then you can blackmail the: I sold one hundred ninety-nine, the curbing will not work! of course, can also be counter-blackmail B: I'm a hundred and fifty, a little more will not work! But because he did not know a bottom line, he asked himself whether this was a bear and not sure which. as long as i insist on not retreat, not a B because of the fear of fear about the business, will steadily give way, the last business very close to the closing price of 199 yuan. If a miscalculation on the bottom line of B, such as 90, then the collapse of the business most of the talks.
we turn to reality, such as the Taiwan issue, which is a United States problem, if the United States non-interference in the case, there is no suspense lay in Taiwan. The United States is very clear that our bottom line, we must fight to declare independence, not separate anything can endure, he always can use this problem to blackmail us to get the most benefit. But China does not know the bottom line of the United States, we do not know under what circumstances they will send troops, we have to believe that changing his repeated hints and verbal threats, again and again to the United States does not support Taiwan independence in exchange for our bad check other concessions. the war the two countries is that both sides are reluctant to see zf (otherwise long fight, where it is necessary to add a little common sense: approach will be adopted no doubt surprise. is not the inevitable long-planned war.), but each time the game is a disadvantage in China. This is China's intelligence and research is not well, if we can grasp the bottom line of the United States often can be tough too more.
look at the Cold War the United States and the Soviet Union, especially in the Cuban missile crisis, which is a typical game behavior. the Soviet Union did not dare, and he expected the U.S. nuclear war, that Americans are afraid of death than their own, so dare to make such things Kukuxiangbi too. But when the Yankees take action at a critical show their courage and determination, because he knew the Soviet Union will not be willing to die, the result is the Soviet retreat. If the American judge No, bin Laden regarded the Soviet Union when imaging the same desperate, then no doubt they will lose a lot of interest.
Foreign Affairs of China in the sixties is a failure. originally Soviet hegemony is one of our excellent time, although the two sides strongly than we, but we at this time is the decisive force, if diplomacy used properly (that is, white fence, who tend to benefit large who I am, but do not fully follow him, reservations and other representations possible) then China will undoubtedly be a very big interest. But we prematurely blocked the road leading to the United States, and so we can not pro-American, so we in the process of dealing with the Soviet Union significantly reduced the bottom line, so that the Soviet Union put forward the requirements of our unbearable, the results do a we and the Soviet Union become enemies. this regard, we in India can be a lot to learn, and the United States, Soviet Union, relations are good, get a lot of benefits. (of course we can no longer sit on the fence of the because we are the other half of the wall)
game we can give a few examples of the breakdown: the Korean War, World War II, the war in Europe. Korean War, North Korea that their behavior does not cross the United States, the bottom line, but he wrong; the United States that he would not cross the bottom line in China, but he was wrong; we once thought that the Soviet Union would support us, but Soviet Union, see our bottom line because of the war the U.S. has been reduced so that the economic blackmail from us (from the obviously morally Soviet weapons should be provided free of charge to us, but he sold us), he did; the existence of the Soviet Union, made the United States to think twice, taking into account their costs may be so, he used in China nuclear weapons has greatly enhanced the bottom line. misjudgment of the country, regardless of the strength of national power have suffered varying degrees of punishment, the biggest winner in this war, the Soviet Union, he used the United States to contain China in the East, to consolidate their forces in Europe won the time of expansion and, more importantly, China and the United States from losing its good opportunity to make the polar bear can find fault with our free (though he later finger painting is so intense, we do not buy it out.) Korean War, China and USA North Korea are all losers, and the cause of breaking the balance is largely for selfish reasons MacArthur impulse (after details).
As for the European theater, which is a wholly bound to break the game. France Poland and the Czech Republic sold to Britain of Hitler, the reserve price of 100, but Hitler did not come up with a child. clever Hitler that Britain and France through diplomatic means, that they will pay (not attack them, give them peace), in the Czech Republic and Poland, good digestion After a fatal blow to France. so do offer both sides can realize that there is no intersection, so early is very important for the plan.
China and Russia's Angarsk-Daqing oil line construction could become the new China's diplomacy The classic game, but unfortunately hh Russia from the early nineties and we started negotiations on trade in oil, we do not lack the feel of oil (proved to be an extremely short-sighted to judge), and bully the Russian economy and diplomatic difficulties are in the proposed conditions are very harsh. But Russia is no way, or have to accept our proposal, this in itself is a very nice deal, actually results in building our pipeline zf things coming along, dragged on, so that the Russian economic and diplomatic situation is improving, China's oil shortage began, we then remember to build the Angarsk-Daqing line, but unfortunately, the Japanese at this time than we made the conditions more favorable, Germany and some other Western European countries also joined the competition. we will lose not only cheap oil, there is a link by a strong economic strategic partnerships (probably made in Japan and Russia closer and closer), and we lost forever the blockade of the possibility of Japan's oil shipping (ask, we can easily attack the Japanese tanker Russia to do?).
said so many examples, to sum up the conclusion that:
balance of power is not everything factors, scientific and effective diplomacy is necessary.
great power diplomacy, we must first figure out someone else's bottom line, not to have been saving people, but can not take it for granted, it is best to do some scientific and objective investigation, such as records of other countries Congressional debate on the process rather than just listen to the announcement, spokesman for example see more of other countries in their politicians and media commentators have said something, make some other countries such as opinion polls, such as not finishing system State forum of public opinion trends, such as the step down of other countries politicians have been conducting interviews hh
then, we want to reduce the enemy's bottom line, improve their bottom line or to others for their bottom line expectations. the long term, improve strength is the most fundamental means of course, but in the short term, we need to a lot of very means to achieve this goal (and third-party relationships provoke hostile, intimidating deterrent, the Department of disinformation drive a wedge between the domestic enemy of work, increased momentum for possible enemy the expected risk of hh).
diplomatic attention to detail. We should maximize beautify our behavior, not to say anything to upset the words of another country (unless our intention is to warn him), whether we love peace We have to pretend to love peace, neither overbearing nor our words and deeds will win more support. If we can trick a national leadership made very beneficial for us to say (although his intention may be just a matter of protocol), it is possible third party has a strong deterrent. Khrushchev took off his shoes knock on the table that the scandal should absolutely not be a big country acts of leaders and diplomats.
we should predict other countries as much as possible of our the possible reaction of the various measures, and make corresponding plans and measures. It's like battle plans, more detailed analysis, the plan needs to make the more copy number.

small country's security strategy with different powers , due to a small population, military power is not strong, the small country will never seek hegemony. such as Mongolia, Vietnam (some may be suspect, behind the paper), South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, Switzerland, Canada and so on.
small country diplomatic logic and power are not the same: they may be conquered, or in history to be conquered, so the aggression is extraordinarily sensitive and panic; they are not what they do for religion or philosophy to fight the traditional, or you can say that there is no principle ; their first consideration is national security, then the country's autonomy and economic benefits; they will seek the grant power, but will not do to risk their safety; the weak sense of national pride in their country do not want big power then strong, easy to take orders from a powerful force.
many small and a large country bordering the small country may be in the big country a vassal, or neutral, or in other countries against the big countries of the bridgehead.'s relations with the geographical, kinship historical emotion, great power invaded the possibility of a small country on the power of geographic containment level, the small country's resources and other factors. and decide that the most critical reason is security, one can own a small state-owned big interests are not Active offend a nearby military power, no matter what is behind the strong back, because first of all be a scorched earth in their own country (which some would immediately raised objections, I will clarify in the back of).
first said Vietnam. In Chinese eyes, Vietnam is ungrateful and dogs audacity of the rogue states, we dare aggression. that such ideas are not strange, because you read books, look at news network, do not know the real history. in accordance with the Vietnamese Some senior officials say (I'm not entirely sure, just want you to listen to different voices, to identify the authenticity of their own): countries, and the liberation of South Vietnam was to stop us. After the war in Vietnam and the United States, China's efforts to provide arms to us so that we and the U.S. consumption, so that many of our comrades was to them as friends. we can not completely defeat the United States, we only can hope for huge losses caused by the U.S. military, so that they feel worth, forcing the downgrade of war, and finally come to the negotiating table. But it is possible, when such negotiations, the Chinese realize that we can be very effective in combat, so the one hand, and the United States as long as the talks made it clear China would not attack the United States would not send troops (and the Korean War is not the same), the United States try to attack us encourage indulgence, to put pressure on the other hand, does not allow us and the Americans negotiate, or even a clear requires us to be drawn to the North Vietnamese to U.S. military operations to achieve greater destruction. Their intentions are clear, and has not the slightest value to our lives. repeatedly asked China to send personnel to build to the south from the meaning of a quiet road, We know that we made their preparations to attack, so we are firmly rejected. China has ambitions for the entire Southeast Asia, their export to individual countries or to subvert the revolution (the back with the information), we are expanding to Southeast Asia he springboard. occupation of our territory now. Well, do not rule out the politicians greed'm a small blow big to start a war, but we want to see Vietnam's ordinary people that we are very hatred, even to all the people all soldiers, the extent of what kind of spell so that each can cause aggression, children and senior citizens desperately to do? fear is that even Japan and Germany can not do it. And we do not have mercy on Vietnamese real
line extinction of slaughter. called the war Battle for the self-defense would be too self-deception of the point of it. and we want to see for a long period of time, the relationship between Vietnam and China are much better than the relations between the Soviet Union (at least on the surface), and in order to help China speak several times contradict the Soviet Union and China, what made him turn against it? a little bit of territory? the Soviet Union but also to his interests and how much military aid to China, he dared to take the initiative to attack it?
from Vietnam to further discuss the issues in Southeast Asia national problems. I do not know a problem is not thought: years), then why make the Chinese threat in Southeast Asia rather than the threat of it in Japan? it? Do not they know that China is a very frightening military power? how much benefit to these small countries to be able to take the risk of being beaten to it as an outpost of anti-China? while Japan and the United States gave them much good? someone can listed here? The fact is that since the founding of China's revolution in Southeast Asia and the subversion of the policy makes them out to China as the biggest threat, and at the expense of the interests of the Americans to seek protection. In addition, our direct access to some of the country's home waters the door, this is not very reasonable, is not it great power chauvinism, what is? Of course, there are a lot of the South China Sea oil, we can not so easily put it to a certain part of the Southeast Asian countries, they do not ask us strength, but we should result in other problems on some of what they want to Huairou. Here we will talk more aggression in Southeast Asia.
Overseas Chinese to incite us to seize power and support of India to provide military assistance, was Suharto's iron-fisted repression, died 60 million Muslims and hatred of Chinese mental deterioration.
we set up training bases in China to Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the power output of the red revolution, without success, casualties unknown.
We support the Cambodian Pol Pot Red Rouge regime, the people out of the gun (we have zf Hoon granted back Pol Pot), killing 120 people (of course, not much to kill us directly, but others are credited to our heads), the total population of 1 / 4. was overthrown by the Vietnamese and the domestic opposition. figures certainly some people do not believe that I can not make a false thing, and their national anthem: the blood of the workers and peasants, which is the blood of revolutionary heroes and heroines, this blood with great anger and firm conviction gushing out of the battle. April 17, under the banner of the revolution, blood, we decided to the liberation of slavery. bandits, and later Burma infighting to capture, not death, sent to China.
above facts may be a slight bias in the details, but the relative to our history books or more credible. the world is not gratuitous hate, I give these examples to illustrate: They will support us. countries friendly activities, and greatly increased their imports from Southeast Asian countries have on our attitude has been greatly improved than before.
on Taiwan, it was said: U.S. and Japanese military bases, a touch a knife in our chest. rather than as a fixed model interactive system, bearing in mind their existing hostility because of our fear generated, if we do not threaten them, their anti-China, will only be a disaster without the slightest interest. assume that we are the people of Taiwan (I do not mean to promote Taiwan independence, but the reasons are not set up to illustrate this point, perhaps you can also find other reasons to attack Taiwan), or Korean, if we are convinced (!) China will not attack us, we will let the United States in our Here the garrison it? Obviously not, because that is likely to be our home into a battlefield and please so many American soldiers to rape our young girls is it a very pleasant thing? China fears the U.S.? that do not, but the premise is that our neighbors do not let him troops. We are a friendly, or by threatening to achieve this? an offensive strategy must be the distant past to attack the strategy, but a defensive strategy should be and Far Near pay strategy. Of course, if you think that China's priority is and the U.S. hegemony, then I have nothing to say.
Another role of small countries is to become a buffer zone between the major powers.
we can look at Mongolia, China and Russia have absolute power to destroy his country instantly, but we have not done so, why? because he is a historical hatred of the military power of two essential buffer between. If Russia is Mongolia He is likely to hit Beijing in one day (and we assume that he is prepared to fully unaware), which is absolutely not allowed. If Mongolia belongs to us, we may one day cut off the lifeline of his Far East ( assumptions above), which is Russia can not tolerate. Therefore, no matter which side of Mongolia attributed,
borders both sides must be heavily garrisoned, consumption spending and the possible consequences caused by mistrust is far more than a barren Mongolia can bring benefits. and then think about Mongolia, and his defense strategy and foreign policy should be? for him, the best defense is no defense! the best diplomacy is the peace between China and Russia.
let's look at Taiwan, China and Japan he was guardian of the most critical path. owned by China, Japan, do not worry; owned by United States and Japan, China does not worry. Our aim is to dominate if Taiwan should be determined to win; we If the purpose of peaceful coexistence, good return of Taiwan, of course, but if he be a neutral force, it is also acceptable. but absolutely to note that Taiwan must not fall inside the United States and Japan hands! to once again remind you that we As I discussed above, Taiwan is not independent and pro-American pro-Japanese (beginning may be a little bit, but people will increasingly find that they allow U.S. troops is an extremely foolish. and large Luyue You well, they the sooner the discovery of this). but to attack Taiwan if we did not win, we completely lost to Taiwan. So, we do not attack Taiwan into when they should not be based on the number, and should we have the basis of certain of winning. be sure, today we can immediately play; not sure, do not play that declared independence, but also should immediately recognize and be friendly, while withdrawal from Fujian. (though I know it can not be
, this approach is best for the country is not the most favorable of zf. so once the inevitable declaration of independence we have zf play, diplomacy will be layered in the back about this issue specifically)
incidental to is an issue about the independence of Tibet and Xinjiang independence. there is a wrong view: independent of the plan. so may be able to keep Tibet Xinjiang, beat them, then to have to let go. We might as well start now and make great efforts to rectify these two places, Mathias both, the strong support of the support, got to be a mercy. < br> For Tibet, we give them good enough, the reason they want independence, and extreme religion are inseparable, in fact, independent, economically disadvantageous to them, the West can not give them more than the Chinese many benefits, so we should vigorously the collapse of their feudal superstitions, let them enjoy the benefits of modern civilization. The most fundamental way is to rule on their education, so that Tibetans can read, in particular, can come out to the Han area higher education, then let them go back, the backbone of the future of Tibet by Han Chinese should be a lot of knowledge of education rather than the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan people.
for Xinjiang independence is not the majority view, but there are small part of the terrorists advocated. the cost of terrorism is very high, and this point we can not do better than Americans, but these terrorists who are a lot of weapons and money coming from Central Asia to penetrate, our approach should be taken block the source. Locked at home certainly is not a reliable and very cost-consuming thing, we should use the five Central Asian countries zf up, how to use it? I will start the following detailed discussion of economic diplomacy.
economic diplomacy
Today, the two most fundamental conflicts between countries what? is a resource and commodity sales to these things and means of transport, not ideological or historical hatred. the most solid between the two countries What are the links? is the symbiotic relationship between the economy, is the countless trade, investment, loans and profits, rather than written on paper of the Covenant, or history. have the resources to couch dispute every inch, no resources, you can spend as much as a thousand miles; a channel, the island is sacrosanct, no channel, and then you can give up the big island; there is a market that is strategic partnerships; fight the market, whether anyone can come to wipe the face sanctions under.
world hee hee are all benefits to, the world Rangrang, are all benefits to the. is largely a modern competitive economy, competition, demand for the territory of major powers have been forgotten, except the territory of special economic use.
why the United States to dominate the world? is because he has a large fleet it? because he has the most nuclear weapons? wrong! is because he has a strong economy, otherwise today's world hegemony of the Soviet Union rather than the United States. Why the U.S. economy strong? is should he care about education? is because he has a good economic system did? wrong! is because he can attract from all over the world and plunder the best professionals, because of his steady stream of U.S. dollar hegemony from the different countries body blood. the United States are not afraid of debt, owed to the status of the more the more firmly; the United States is not afraid of a deficit, the deficit the greater the plunder of resources from the more other people. How many countries in the world foreign exchange reserves, how much the United States to suck blood, and these reserves still kept in the incremental and devaluation. a dollar creditor countries are the United States, but now troubled world, in turn, the debt is the vision of the old, money lender is Yang Bailao. U.S. debt (especially foreign exchange reserves ) is such an ideal state: the United States does not collapse, and also to never need to borrow more for more, once the United States simply does not collapse to play. This is the sorrow of people around the world.
to win over a country, The best way is to tie together the economy; to fight a country, the best way is to destroy his economy.
us first look at an ancient example of the country Conquest of Wu Yue King. Many people know Gou Revival , but I would say that Revival is his Conquest of Wu country do the most insignificant things and even counterproductive. you sleep eat ten thousand life firewood or Wu Wu gall, you then make every effort to beat the pro or elite training Wu army, they might be spies snooping after the king did first come to the crusade against you, you want to eat a dung no chance. Conquest of Wu of the most important country to do four things: First, send bribe a treacherous, and sent to confuse beauty beauty king, making the famous Wu Fu Chai beheaded. II, provoking attack Qi Wu, consuming national strength. the most toxic of the two in the back. Third, Wu wants to build a new palace, have good design . Gou sent into the mountains to give the giant trees in the felling of the trees at the king as the pillars of the palace, the king could not bear such a good material, ordered the re-designed the much larger palace, a huge national power consumption, and sulked. Fourth, Gou lied to famine, to Wu by the food. the coming year, more countries choose the best food, but secretly steamed back to Wu. Wu to see such good food and decided to put them down as sowing seeds, the results crop failure, Wu Tai hunger, hungry, die of hunger all over the floor. At this point since Gou Bing Fa Wu, anything too numerous of the reason? This is the power of economic warfare.
us back to today, determine our economic strategy on how the factors used lack of resources, the extent of the defects and advantages of the industrial structure, capital adequacy and the lack of degree and so on. For us to control the country, we first want to make him a necessity in the formation is dependent on me, lack of food in the countries we sell his food, lack of resources to control his country's resources, we are playing the beleaguered country we sell them weapons. For we want to make a good country, we should try to buy products from them, become their god of wealth, but careful not to over-reliance on the necessity for foreign countries, big countries such as China must have a complete industrial structure. We want to fight for the country, we have to mess up their finances, to find ways to lose the credibility of their products to make their money lost to the continuous depreciation of the credit, or even directly against the production and transportation of their resources.
that specific point.
for Russia, we should try (that is lower than international prices, or with preferential terms) of grain sold to him , domestic food production to decline (which there are difficulties, but I believe that with our land privatization, the cost will come down, production will rise up.) imported oil to him, the best is to build the Angarsk-Daqing line (sorry , because of our stupidity, which gradually impossible) to make Russia's oil trade initiative in our hands, and can also be used to suppress the Japanese. For the import of Russian weapons to be careful, never too strong in parts to form
dependence, or we will be very passive individual that only emergency or learning the import of weapons technology, categorically not become mainstream. other ordinary trade should be strengthened to promote friendly relations.
For Japan, we should strive to export food and vegetables, and its production capacity to shrink. official efforts to increase trade, and civil efforts to reduce imports. (This need to explain that the official made a gesture of goodwill, does not set any barriers to trade, but folk Japanese goods less spontaneous, does not seem to well be called anti-Japanese fellow citizens, to start with ourselves, right) bold to the Japanese borrowed money and borrowed the better (as long as interest is not abnormally high). This is our war on Japan after the matter is and, all hold a certain degree of initiative.
for South-East Asia, efforts to import, enhance the economic development of his dependence on us to reduce the civil unnecessary hostility. and if possible some investors, the strength of our penetration of the financial and industry which enhance the degree of control. the secret support of the Chinese offer more than the public good, to change the heartless image of the Oriental Jews, get a bit more into the political arena.
for the five Central Asian countries, efforts to strengthen all trade, the implementation of their benefit to us not very favorable trade policies so that we truly become their source of income. When they feel can not do without a stable and prosperous China, when they can not stand the Chinese border is closed, they will voluntarily help us block the Islamic extremists, they State of the Islamic people will form a favorable impression of China, so that we achieve real enemy out. trade than the small loss on the damage caused by the terrorist attack is much smaller, and more independence in Xinjiang can not be compared.
the United States, will specifically discuss how to implement the back of the soft hit. not like ...