Bullish on gold and emerging markets

 The overseas investment manager of JP Morgan Wang Bangqi
this century, the gold price from February 2001 to $ 253 off the end, the continuing rise in the past eight years, to November 25, 2009, about $ 1,180 an ounce, up 366%, the time when the gold off the bottom, the Dow Jones index of 10 779 points, to 24 November 2009, only 10 433 points, marking more than eight years, while the Shanghai A share performance a little better in 2009, 2 received 16 May 1942 point to the Nov. 25,UGG boots cheap, 2009 received 3290 points,Discount UGG boots, then taking into account a total of 2005 against the U.S. dollar appreciated by 21%, the total return of 104%, but compared to gold, but eight years to bring out the gold eternal glory.
what reason, cause such a rise of gold, my view is as follows:
First of all, originally recognized as the world's largest gold producer in South Africa, current gold production continued to fall this year, eight fell 8.4% year on hold in September, down 15% analysts had previously thought it was a power shortage in South Africa itself, interrupted mining factors, but later found out was not really digging; since 1905, the market has been the world's first gold a major producer of the 1970s, as much as 1,000 tons of annual production capacity fell to 134 tons in 2008. the traditional gold producing countries in the depletion of a significant reduction in the supply of gold.
Second, central banks had sold gold annually , the average supply over the past two decades,UGG shoes, the market is probably about 20% gold, sell gold over the years, including Britain, France, Italy and Switzerland, the central bank, but not this year, the central bank will not only sell gold, but started buying gold, first The People's Bank to increase gold reserves to 1,054 tonnes, India's central bank to buy from the International Monetary Fund, 200 tons of gold, and other countries including Russia and the Middle East more or less continued to increase their gold, it is worth noting that gold holdings this year emerging market central bank is the one economic upturn in emerging market itself, and secondly, all the emerging market for global excess liquidity began wary.
Third, the gold market and fixed income markets has been the relationship between reverse simply speaking, when the market interest rate is low, especially when money market yields lower, give up parts of interest income and the cost of obtaining the gold down so sharply, the price of gold above the wave of the 1980s, the high point of observation, until the love of cigars former Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker to raise interest rates sharply only after a wave of gold near $ 1,000 from the previous high of pressure off, give up to buy U.S. dollar assets to buy gold or a higher return on assets in emerging markets, is the main axis of the wave of market, which is a carry trade (Carry Trade) concept, developed markets,UGG boots clearance, the overall flow of funds from the gold, but also flows to emerging markets is the rising price of gold is observed whether the emerging markets continued to rise in the key. < br> recognize these three viewpoints, you know, global capital outflow from the dollar zone, gold is an important indicator, the trend goes on, more than is the trend of gold prices, emerging markets also benefit from this trend, as long as the funds will continue to flows to emerging markets, the central banks of emerging markets have the pressure to buy gold, gold prices rise, also on behalf of the emerging markets of the stock market continued to reinforce each other. I am bullish on gold, but also optimistic about the global emerging markets.